Aplikasi Metode ARIMA untuk Perkiraan Jumlah Wisatawan Asing di Pulau Samosir Sumatera Utara Tahun 2011-2013 Berdasarkan Data Tahun 2005-2009

Abstract

The objectives of this study were to analyze the foreign tourists number of time series data at Samosir island of North Sumatera and to identify alternative of ARIMA models that could be used for price forcasting in period 2011-2013. A total of 60 observations that covered monthly foreign tourists number from 2005 to 2009 are used in this study. Building ARIMA forecasting models involved an iterative some stage cycles of identification of model specification, estimation of identified model’s parameters, and evaluation of models’ goodness-of-fit and their performance in forecasting. Results show that ARIMA model that can best represent the foreign tourists number behavior during the period of 2005-12009, and outperforms other model specifications in price forcasting, is ARIMA(0,0,0)(0,1,2)12 which can be written as 12 12 14 1,0855 0,5299 − − − = + − + t t t t t X X e e e By knowing the number of foreign tourists to come, can be done even planning another sector can be used as a guide to see the opportunities that exist.